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Joseph Mezrich
Dec 18, 20241 min read
The Stock Market's Profit Bet
Typically, earnings growth is more important than sales growth for stock performance. However, as the chart illustrates, this was not the...
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Joseph Mezrich
Nov 27, 20241 min read
Small Caps Reward Big Spending
Since early September, small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks. Investors' recent enthusiasm for small caps is evident in...
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Joseph Mezrich
Nov 11, 20241 min read
Where was the stock market's momentum strongest last week?
The stock market reacted enthusiastically to the election results, and momentum played a significant role in almost every market segment....
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Joseph Mezrich
Nov 3, 20241 min read
The stock market’s leverage bet
It is surprising and potentially alarming that financial leverage has been a powerful driver of stock returns during the market rally...
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Joseph Mezrich
Oct 15, 20241 min read
Opportunity in active value – an update
In a recent post, I highlighted an example of what can be missed when using a passive index approach to value. In the consumer staples...
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Joseph Mezrich
Oct 1, 20242 min read
What passive value investing misses
It is not uncommon for different value metrics to produce different investment outcomes, so value indices and ETFs generally blend value...
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Joseph Mezrich
Sep 19, 20241 min read
How to Invest in Productivity
The sales/employee ratio should be a good measure of employee productivity. However, it varies considerably across market sectors, much...
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Joseph Mezrich
Sep 9, 20242 min read
Could Buybacks be a Presidential Election Indicator?
In his March State of the Union address, President Biden proposed raising the excise tax on stock buybacks from 1% to 4% to discourage...
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Joseph Mezrich
Aug 22, 20242 min read
Momentum is losing the momentum-reversal competition
Momentum was a driving force for the market in 2024 until momentum peaked on July 9. Momentum resumed its upward climb at the end of...
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Joseph Mezrich
Aug 16, 20241 min read
A worrisome shift in tech stock drivers
A distinction of tech companies is that they are sources of innovation and growth. In addition, large-cap tech companies often rank among...
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Joseph Mezrich
Aug 9, 20241 min read
Factors Say it’s a Bottom – For Now
Two notable features of the 2024 market rally were the power of momentum and the dominance of large-cap stocks. The market peaked on July...
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Joseph Mezrich
Jul 1, 20242 min read
AI Frenzy and AI Fatigue in Tech Stocks
The public was introduced to Open AI's ChatGPT on November 30, 2022. It took a month for the potential of this breakthrough to electrify...
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Joseph Mezrich
Jun 21, 20241 min read
Momentum Everywhere
The S&P500 has returned 15% through June 20, 2024. Half of the gains were achieved since early May. Momentum also has a strong 2024, but...
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Joseph Mezrich
Jun 10, 20242 min read
Markets after being attacked: October 7 vs. 9/11
It took eight weeks after the 9/11 attack on the US for the S&P500 to sustain its recovery to its pre-9/11 level. The rebound from its...
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Joseph Mezrich
May 9, 20241 min read
What stocks are pricing for rates: an update
In previous articles, I've highlighted the strong correlation between the direction of bond yields and the return to Free Cash Flow yield...
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Joseph Mezrich
Apr 18, 20242 min read
Has Corporate cash flow signaled higher interest rates?
The markets are frustrated, waiting for a decline in interest rates. There is now the added concern of rates going higher. In a recent...
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Joseph Mezrich
Apr 2, 20242 min read
Why rates matter now for value vs growth
Except for a few days in 2005, the spread between corporate and treasury bond yields hasn’t been as low as it is now since 1997. These...
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Joseph Mezrich
Mar 21, 20242 min read
Is Sustainability Sustainable?
The problem with ESG is that this label bolts together three different topics: Environmental, Social, and Governance. The ESG label was...
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Joseph Mezrich
Mar 6, 20242 min read
The risk to tech and the market that companies ignore
The year 2018 was a landmark one for corporate taxes in the US. Until the end of 2017, the corporate tax rate was 35%; afterward, it...
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Joseph Mezrich
Feb 22, 20242 min read
What matters to companies – analysis with AI
Recently, I posted about using large language models of AI to analyze earnings calls for sentiment to pick stocks. In addition to...
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